Market model

TAM, obtainable market and value pool

A working model for the software opportunity. The goal is not precision yet; it is to make the assumptions visible enough for cofounder, investor and partner discussion.

Software TAM 257.988.000 kr. Base annual recurring revenue if all modelled segments bought at assumed ARPA. Range: 179,4 mio.-339 mio. DKK.
Early SAM 155.700.000 kr. Private canteens plus B2B lunch/catering operators. Range: 105,6 mio.-205,8 mio. DKK ARR.
3-year SOM prior 6.228.000 kr. 4% of early SAM. Treat as a planning target, not a forecast.
Value per 200-meal kitchen 189.500 kr. Stacked annual upside from time, waste, food cost and documentation assumptions.

Segment ARR model

Base ARPA
Private workplace canteens 2000-4000 units · 3.500 kr./month
126 mio. ARR
B2B lunch/catering operators 400-700 units · 4.500 kr./month
29,7 mio. ARR
Pleje and elderly meal kitchens 800-1100 units · 5.000 kr./month
57 mio. ARR
Municipal central kitchens 50-150 units · 10.000 kr./month
12 mio. ARR
Hospitals and regions 25-40 units · 20.000 kr./month
7,7 mio. ARR
Daycare municipal/multi-site buyers 50-150 units · 8.000 kr./month
9,4 mio. ARR
Efterskoler and school-food sites 250-700 units · 3.000 kr./month
16,2 mio. ARR

Customer value stack

200 meals/day
Admin time saved 75.000 kr.

1 hour/day x 250 days x 300 DKK/hour.

Food/waste improvement 55.000 kr.

5% improvement on 1.1M DKK annual food spend.

Compliance/reporting relief 37.500 kr.

0.5 hour/day documentation relief.

Waste feedback upside 22.000 kr.

20% reduction of a 110k avoidable waste pool.

Business-level calculator

Interactive

Use this to sanity-check what the first wedge could become. Defaults describe private canteens plus B2B lunch/catering operators, not all institutional kitchens.

Interpretation

The credible investor story is not "every institutional kitchen buys Nornilo Food." It is narrower: win a private wedge where sales cycles are workable, prove measurable value per kitchen, then use references to move into high-value public and care segments.